Forecast Map Polls Scenarios Backtesting Swingometrics
Interactive Scenarios

Build Your Own Forecast

Adjust vote shares and model parameters to explore different election scenarios. See how changes propagate through to seat projections.

National Vote Share

Reform UK
Conservative
Labour
Liberal Democrats
Green
Others (SNP, PC, etc.)

Model Parameters

Regional Swing Factor

How much regional differences amplify national swing

Polling Error (σ)

Assumed standard deviation in polling accuracy

Simulations

More simulations = more stable estimates (slower)

Quick Scenarios

Historical Results

Projected Seats

326 majority
0
650

Outcome Probabilities

Parliament