Interactive Scenarios
Build Your Own Forecast
Adjust vote shares and model parameters to explore different election scenarios. See how changes propagate through to seat projections.
National Vote Share
Reform UK
Conservative
Labour
Liberal Democrats
Green
Others (SNP, PC, etc.)
Model Parameters
Regional Swing Factor
How much regional differences amplify national swing
Polling Error (σ)
Assumed standard deviation in polling accuracy
Simulations
More simulations = more stable estimates (slower)