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Poll Tracker

All UK general election polls with filtering, house effects analysis, and interactive visualisation. Updated 3x daily at 06:00, 12:00, and 18:00 UTC.

Current Poll Average

Signal Adjustments Foreign & local election signals

Current Signal Weights

Foreign Elections
US, EU, Canadian, Australian results
5%
180-day half-life
Local Elections
By-elections, council, mayoral
12%
90-day half-life

Party Adjustments

F = Foreign L = Local Values in percentage points

Signals capture political momentum from elections outside regular polling. Learn more about our signal methodology →

Polling Trends Full History

All Polls

Date
Pollster
Sample
REF CON LAB LD GRN Lead

House Effects How pollsters lean relative to average

What this shows: How each pollster's results systematically differ from the cross-pollster average at the time each poll was conducted. A positive value means the pollster tends to report that party higher than peers; negative means lower.

What this does not show: These are not measures of polling accuracy or quality. Differences often reflect legitimate methodological choices: sampling frames, weighting strategies, question wording, and mode effects all produce systematic variation. A pollster with large house effects may ultimately prove closest to the election result.

Only the five main GB-wide parties are shown. Effects may not sum to zero per pollster because smaller parties (SNP, Plaid Cymru, Other) absorb the remainder.

About Poll Aggregation

Our poll average uses exponential decay weighting with a 14-day half-life, giving more weight to recent polls. Sample size is also factored in using sqrt scaling. House effects are adjusted based on historical pollster bias. The aggregation also incorporates signals from foreign elections and UK local elections.

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